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Wtedy, ostrzegali goście, może pęknąć społeczny „balonik”: Majdan 3.0 albo zrzucenie winy na sojuszników. **W tej narracji „najbardziej mogłaby oberwać Polska”**, jako sojusznik, który był najbliżej i nie pomógł na wystarczającym poziomie."},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"read_more","title":"","content":{"articles":[{"type":"content","value":1072760}],"showThumbnails":true},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"paragraph","title":"","content":{"text":"Pojawiły się też pytania o przyszłość samego Wołodymyra Zełenskiego. Autorzy nie idealizowali prezydenta Ukrainy i podzielili jego kadencję na trzy etapy: przedwojenny, wojenny i „schyłkowy”. Obecnie Zełenski stara się skonsolidować wokół siebie całą władzę i rozgrywać zarówno elity, jak i samo społeczeństwo. Goście zwracali też uwagę na rekonstrukcję MSZ Ukrainy i nominacje Wasyla Bodnara oraz Wasyla Zwarycza, co jasno pokazało, że celem jest łagodzenie sporu z Polską. A jeśli się nie uda – wykorzystanie znajomości polskich polityków."},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"ad_banner","title":"","content":{"autoFetchSiteTags":true,"doNotShrink":true,"sizes":[[250,250],[300,50],[300,100],[300,120],[300,250],[320,50],[320,100],[468,60],[728,90],[750,100],[750,200]],"size":"in_text","type":"default","format":"horizontal","mobileFormat":"square","placement":"in_text","adUnitId":23206262007,"adUnit":"article_page_in_text_2","adUnitFullPath":"defence24_pl/article_page_in_text_2","targeting":{"Kolejność":["2"],"STRONA":"Defence24"},"networkCode":"124160847","adUnitDivId":"article_page_in_text_2"},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"GoogleAds","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"anchor","title":"","content":{"text":"Białoruś jako wyzwanie. Łukaszenka liczy, że przetrwa Putina","slug":"bia-orus-jako-wyzwanie---ukaszenka-liczy--ze-przetrwa-putina-237"},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"heading","title":"","content":{"level":2,"text":"Białoruś jako wyzwanie. Łukaszenka liczy, że przetrwa Putina"},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"paragraph","title":"","content":{"text":"„Jeżeli miałbym odpowiedzieć jednym słowem, czym jest Białoruś dla Polski, to jest przede wszystkim wyzwaniem” – powiedział Wypartowicz. Bez Alaksandra Łukaszenki w Mińsku „nie dzieje się nic”, ale nad Łukaszenką stoi Władimir Putin. Goście przypominali, że Zachód – w tym Polska – po 2020 roku odciął Łukaszenkę od „zachodniego fortepianu” i wepchnął go głębiej w objęcia Moskwy. W wyniku tego nastąpiło przyspieszenie integracji w ramach Państwa Związkowego, zbliżenie prawa, gospodarki i obronności. Elity w Mińsku widzą ryzyko całkowitego wchłonięcia Białorusi przez Federację Rosyjską i realnie obawiają się takiego scenariusza."},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"paragraph","title":"","content":{"text":"Od 2021 roku retoryka białoruskich generałów była prosta: Polska i NATO szykują atak. Teraz – według Wypartowicza – pojawiło się coś nowego. Białoruskie wojsko mówi, że Polska „odsunęła zagrożenie”. Gdy drony wlatują w białoruską przestrzeń, Mińsk dzwoni do Warszawy. Służby białoruskie miały też ostrzec Polskę przed planowanym atakiem terrorystycznym. To sygnały w stylu: chcemy żyć z wami względnie spokojnie, pomóżcie, bo Kreml nas dociśnie. Goście przestrzegali jednak przed łatwowiernością. Łukaszenka już w 2006 roku groził presją migracyjną, jeśli Zachód utrudni sprzedaż nawozów. Zrealizował to później. „Jego prawdomówność ma ramy” – mówił Wypartowicz."},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"paragraph","title":"","content":{"text":"Kozioł ocenił, że Łukaszenka po cichu liczy, iż zostanie na tronie dłużej niż Putin. Białorusini noszą międzypokoleniową traumę II wojny światowej, a sam Łukaszenka nie chce eskalacji. Jak dodał, przywódca Białorusi jest z pewnością ostatnią osobą w całej wschodnioeuropejskiej układance, która chciałaby eskalacji konfliktu. Sama sytuacja w Mińsku jest jednak w dużej mierze zależna od tego, jak potoczy się wojna na Ukrainie. W przypadku klęski lub braku sukcesu w bieżącej wojnie Moskwa może, w ramach „rekompensaty”, spróbować całkowicie wchłonąć Białoruś, co strategicznie byłoby klęską dla państwa polskiego – oceniał Kozioł."},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true},{"driver":"ad_banner","title":"","content":{"autoFetchSiteTags":true,"doNotShrink":true,"sizes":[[250,250],[300,50],[300,100],[300,120],[300,250],[320,50],[320,100],[468,60],[750,200]],"size":"in_text","type":"default","format":"horizontal","mobileFormat":"square","placement":"in_text","adUnitId":23207292071,"adUnit":"article_page_in_text_3","adUnitFullPath":"defence24_pl/article_page_in_text_3","targeting":{"Kolejność":"Nad komentarzami","STRONA":"Defence24"},"networkCode":"124160847","adUnitDivId":"article_page_in_text_3"},"size":{"colSpan":6,"isResizable":true,"rowSpan":1},"version":"GoogleAds","isMobileVisible":true,"isDesktopVisible":true,"isLazyLoaded":true}]},"containers":{"bottom":"boxed","middle":"boxed","top":"boxed"},"options":{"layout":[],"paywall":false,"sponsored":false,"ads":true,"adsAdX":true,"adsAdXAdSense":true,"comments":true,"lockCommenting":false,"hideAuthor":true,"hidePublicationDate":false},"title":"Co czeka region? Scenariusze dla Kijowa i Mińska","type":"article","pdf":{"path":"https://api-x.defence24.pl/api/pdf/1129413","public":false},"urlPath":"geopolityka/co-czeka-region-scenariusze-dla-kijowa-i-minska","categoryUrl":"geopolityka","commentsCount":0,"reactionsCount":{"like":0},"readingTime":4},"meta":[{"name":"title","content":"Co czeka region? Scenariusze dla Kijowa i Mińska"},{"name":"description","content":"Ukraina obroniła niepodległość, ale niekoniecznie terytoria, a Białoruś pozostaje dla Warszawy przede wszystkim wyzwaniem. Wojciech Kozioł i Bartłomiej Wypartowicz – autorzy książek „Między Bugiem a prawdą” i „Wojna, której nie chcemy” – wskazują, że z wojny na Ukrainie trzeba czerpać lekcje – zwłaszcza te dotyczące obrony cywilnej i administracji, bez naiwnego kopiowania rozwiązań, a sygnały z Mińska odbierać z dużą ostrożnością."},{"property":"og:title","content":"Co czeka region? Scenariusze dla Kijowa i Mińska"},{"property":"og:description","content":"Ukraina obroniła niepodległość, ale niekoniecznie terytoria, a Białoruś pozostaje dla Warszawy przede wszystkim wyzwaniem. Wojciech Kozioł i Bartłomiej Wypartowicz – autorzy książek „Między Bugiem a prawdą” i „Wojna, której nie chcemy” – wskazują, że z wojny na Ukrainie trzeba czerpać lekcje – zwłaszcza te dotyczące obrony cywilnej i administracji, bez naiwnego kopiowania rozwiązań, a sygnały z Mińska odbierać z dużą ostrożnością."},{"property":"og:image","content":"https://cdn.defence24.pl//2020/09/15/originals/78lMzQzzyVe2k0lvVutFlEduqYCLABtOHvargpgN.png"},{"property":"twitter:title","content":"Co czeka region? Scenariusze dla Kijowa i Mińska"},{"property":"twitter:description","content":"Ukraina obroniła niepodległość, ale niekoniecznie terytoria, a Białoruś pozostaje dla Warszawy przede wszystkim wyzwaniem. Wojciech Kozioł i Bartłomiej Wypartowicz – autorzy książek „Między Bugiem a prawdą” i „Wojna, której nie chcemy” – wskazują, że z wojny na Ukrainie trzeba czerpać lekcje – zwłaszcza te dotyczące obrony cywilnej i administracji, bez naiwnego kopiowania rozwiązań, a sygnały z Mińska odbierać z dużą ostrożnością."},{"property":"twitter:image","content":"https://cdn.defence24.pl//2020/09/15/originals/78lMzQzzyVe2k0lvVutFlEduqYCLABtOHvargpgN.png"},{"property":"og:type","content":"article"},{"property":"article:published_time","content":"2026-08-27T06:00:00+02:00"},{"name":"robots","content":"index, follow, max-image-preview:large"}],"paywall":"accessGranted","related":{"author":{"1":{"id":1,"firstName":"Defence24","lastName":"","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1538148},"url":"/strona-autora/defence24","slug":"defence24","description":null,"position":null,"title":null,"isEditorial":true,"isPageActive":true},"17":{"id":17,"firstName":"Jacek Marcin","lastName":"Raubo","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1793365},"url":"/strona-autora/jacek-marcin-raubo","slug":"jacek-marcin-raubo","description":"Dr Jacek M. Raubo – Szef działu analiz Defence24. Analityk, publicysta oraz wykładowca akademicki. Specjalizuje się w różnych aspektach bezpieczeństwa narodowego oraz obronności współczesnych państw, z uwzględnieniem również kwestii wpływu nowych technologii na segment bezpieczeństwa i obronności. Uczestnik licznych konferencji branżowych i sympozjów w Polsce oraz w Europie. Stały komentator w mediach polskich i zagranicznych.","position":"Szef Działu Analiz","title":"Dr","isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"64":{"id":64,"firstName":"Mateusz","lastName":"Multarzyński","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1797112},"url":"/strona-autora/mateusz-multarzynski","slug":"mateusz-multarzynski","description":"Mateusz Multarzyński - dziennikarz, analityk, ekspert ds. techniki wojskowej. Specjalizuje się w tematyce pojazdów kołowych, bezzałogowych platform lądowych, wyposażenia indywidualnego żołnierzy, broni strzeleckiej oraz jednostek specjalnych. Od 2005 r. współpracował z takimi tytułami, jak Nowa Technika Wojskowa, Wojsko i Technika, AUTO Technika Motoryzacyjna, Van Ekstra czy Special - Ops Magazyn Ludzi Akcji, w którym przez cztery lata pełnił również funkcję Redaktora Naczelnego. Od 2020 roku redaktor portalu Defence24.pl","position":"Starszy Redaktor","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"70":{"id":70,"firstName":"Jakub","lastName":"Palowski","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1833483},"url":"/strona-autora/jakub-palowski","slug":"jakub-palowski","description":"Zastępca Redaktora Naczelnego Defence24.pl i Defence24.com. Analityk i ekspert w obszarze obronności. W Defence24. sp z o.o. od 2014 roku, od 2016 roku zastępca redaktora naczelnego portalu Defence24.pl. Specjalizuje się w tematyce polityki obronnej, rozbudowy oraz modernizacji technicznej sił zbrojnych i jej finansowania w Polsce oraz krajach NATO, przemysłu obronnego, a także współczesnych konfliktów zbrojnych oraz obrony powietrznej. Prowadzący specjalistyczne konferencje organizowane przez Defence24.pl w ramach Forum Defence24. Absolwent Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie. Autor ponad 1100 artykułów na portalu Defence24.pl oraz specjalistycznych raportów publikowanych przez Defence24.pl.","position":"Zastępca Redaktora Naczelnego Defence24.pl","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"127":{"id":127,"firstName":"Energetyka24","lastName":"","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1538149},"url":"/strona-autora/energetyka24","slug":"energetyka24","description":null,"position":null,"title":null,"isEditorial":true,"isPageActive":true},"129":{"id":129,"firstName":"Space24","lastName":"","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1538145},"url":null,"slug":"space24","description":"...","position":null,"title":null,"isEditorial":true,"isPageActive":true},"130":{"id":130,"firstName":"InfoSecurity24","lastName":"","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1538152},"url":"/strona-autora/infosecurity24","slug":"infosecurity24","description":"...","position":null,"title":null,"isEditorial":true,"isPageActive":true},"139":{"id":139,"firstName":"Mateusz","lastName":"Mitkow","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1799055},"url":"/strona-autora/mateusz-mitkow","slug":"mateusz-mitkow","description":"Mateusz Mitkow – ekspert ds. tematyki kosmicznej, rozwoju polskiego sektora kosmicznego oraz nowych technologii w kontekście bezpieczeństwa i obronności. Zajmuje się także geopolityką, bezpieczeństwem międzynarodowym i globalnym wyścigiem technologicznym. Od 2021 roku publikuje analizy i artykuły dotyczące polityki i przemysłu kosmicznego w Polsce i na świecie.\nAbsolwent Studiów Europejskich oraz magister Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego ze specjalizacją w zakresie zarządzania kryzysowego na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim. Uczestniczył w międzynarodowych konferencjach, takich jak Defence24 Days, International Astronautical Congress, Globstate i Forum Sektora Kosmicznego, oraz w branżowych seminariach poświęconych technologiom kosmicznym, w tym „Bezpieczna Łączność dla Polski – szanse i perspektywy” oraz „Rozwój zdolności działań wielodomenowych w Siłach Zbrojnych RP”.\nUdziela komentarzy eksperckich dla polskich i zagranicznych mediów oraz przeprowadza wywiady z czołowymi przedstawicielami branży kosmicznej w Polsce i Europie. Od 2024 roku pełni funkcję redaktora prowadzącego Space24.pl.","position":"Redaktor naczelny Space24","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"165":{"id":165,"firstName":"Adam","lastName":"Świerkowski","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1806372},"url":"/strona-autora/adam-swierkowski","slug":"adam-swierkowski","description":"Jego specjalizacją jest uzbrojenie używane przez wojska lądowe ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem sprzętu pancernego i artylerii. W Grupie Defence24 od ponad 4 lat. Absolwent Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego I stopnia oraz Politologii II stopnia na Uniwersytecie Łódzkim.","position":"Redaktor","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"174":{"id":174,"firstName":"Bartłomiej","lastName":"Wypartowicz","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1807390},"url":"/strona-autora/bartlomiej-wypartowicz","slug":"bartlomiej-wypartowicz","description":"Bartłomiej Wypartowicz jest Starszym Redaktorem w Defence24.pl, specjalizującym się w bezpieczeństwie międzynarodowym, polityce wschodniej i zagadnieniach militarnych w Europie Wschodniej. Analizuje sytuację w Ukrainie, Białorusi i Rosji, koncentrując się na wydarzeniach wojskowych, strategiach obronnych oraz przemyśle zbrojeniowym. Jest autorem książki Między Bugiem a prawdą, która skupia się na analizie polskiej polityki wschodniej ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem Ukrainy i Białorusi, oraz książki Wojna, której nie chcemy. W swoich artykułach łączy bieżące raportowanie z dogłębną analizą geopolityczną i strategiczną, podkreślając zależności między polityką międzynarodową a bezpieczeństwem regionalnym.","position":"Starszy Redaktor","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"179":{"id":179,"firstName":"Adam","lastName":"Jawor","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1727408},"url":"/strona-autora/adam-jawor","slug":"adam-jawor","description":"Płk rez. kontrwywiadu, były ekspert EUROPOLU d/s rosyjskich (w trakcie służby pełnił szereg funkcji kierowniczych w jednostkach organizacyjnych - jako dyrektor zarządu, zastępca dyrektora, ekspert).","position":"Redaktor współpracujący","title":null,"isEditorial":true,"isPageActive":true},"182":{"id":182,"firstName":"Damian","lastName":"Ratka","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1793538},"url":"/strona-autora/damian-ratka","slug":"damian-ratka","description":"Specjalizuje się w broni pancernej pochodzącej z USA, Wielkiej Brytanii oraz byłego ZSRR.","position":"Redaktor","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"189":{"id":189,"firstName":"Antoni","lastName":"Walkowski","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1793363},"url":"/strona-autora/antoni-walkowski","slug":"antoni-walkowski","description":"Na co dzień poprawia przecinki w tekstach redakcyjnych kolegów i dłubie w śrubkach. Po godzinach bawi się w wojskowego detektywa-amatora. Lubi wszystko, co ma koła, gąsienice, skrzydła lub stery, zwłaszcza gdy pod maską znajduje się nietypowy silnik.\nW młodości pasjami rysował samoloty wojskowe na marginesach szkolnych zeszytów, czym doprowadzał nauczycieli do rozpaczy. Karierę dziennikarza rozpoczął w 2006 roku. W kwietniu 2023 r. przekuł wieloletnią pasję do obronności i bezpieczeństwa w pracę, dołączając do Defence24. Dziś pisuje głównie o sprzęcie wojskowym, zwłaszcza artylerii samobieżnej, pojazdach opancerzonych oraz okrętach podwodnych. Chciałby wydać książkę taką jak monografie broni i uzbrojenia, na których się wychowywał.","position":"Redaktor","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"196":{"id":196,"firstName":"Agnieszka","lastName":"Zielińska","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1854134},"url":"/strona-autora/agnieszka-zielinska","slug":"agnieszka-zielinska","description":"Dziennikarka zajmująca się gospodarką i energetyką. Wcześniej związana m.in. z „Rzeczpospolitą”, Money.pl, „Pulsem Biznesu” i Biznes Enter. W swoich tekstach koncentruje się przede wszystkim na polityce klimatycznej, dekarbonizacji przemysłu i transformacji energetycznej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem odnawialnych źródeł energii.","position":"Redaktorka","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"199":{"id":199,"firstName":"Wojciech","lastName":"Kozioł","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1617025},"url":"/strona-autora/wojciech-koziol","slug":"wojciech-koziol","description":"

Redaktor Defence24, politolog i magister nauk o bezpieczeństwie. Specjalizuje się w tematyce Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej. Jest autorem książki Między Bugiem a prawdą, która skupia się na analizie polskiej polityki wschodniej ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem Ukrainy i Białorusi, oraz książki Wojna, której nie chcemy. Obszary jego działalności i zainteresowań to geopolityka, bezpieczeństwo regionalne, polityka zagraniczna oraz polityka mocarstw.

","position":"Redaktor","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"211":{"id":211,"firstName":"Paweł","lastName":"Makowiec","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1636275},"url":"/strona-autora/pawel-makowiec-2","slug":"pawel-makowiec-2","description":"Redaktor CyberDefence24, interesujący się kwestiami cyberbezpieczeństwa oraz technologii w transporcie – zwłaszcza, jeżeli stawką jest bezpieczeństwo podróżujących. Kładzie duży nacisk na przedstawianie wydarzeń takimi, jakimi faktycznie są, w oparciu o rzetelne dowody. Prywatnie miłośnik transportu kolejowego, eksplorujący jego historię w Polsce.","position":"Redaktor","title":null,"isEditorial":false,"isPageActive":true},"230":{"id":230,"firstName":"Mikołaj","lastName":"Rogalewicz","avatar":{"type":"file","value":1821856},"url":"/strona-autora/mikolaj-rogalewicz","slug":"mikolaj-rogalewicz","description":"Redaktor portalu CyberDefence24 oraz wykładowca na WNPiSM Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego. Ekspert w zakresie cyberbezpieczeństwa i przeciwdziałania dezinformacji, z ponad ośmioletnim doświadczeniem zawodowym w tych dziedzinach.\n\nSpecjalizuje się w przeciwdziałaniu dezinformacji oraz regulacjach dotyczących cyberbezpieczeństwa. Autor licznych publikacji eksperckich, regularnie publikujący na łamach CyberDefence24 oraz Poradnika Przedsiębiorcy. Stały komentator w ogólnopolskich mediach. 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